est. 2026one cent
The Churn Report
Vol. IIssue 01Customer Risk & RetentionDaily edition
Customers10,000
Churn rate20.4%
Mean tenure5.0 yr
Mean balance$76,486
Mean credit651
France5,014
Germany2,509
Spain2,477
Customers10,000
Churn rate20.4%
Mean tenure5.0 yr
Mean balance$76,486
Mean credit651
France5,014
Germany2,509
Spain2,477
The verdict / Section I

Hargraveis very likely to leave.

The model puts the probability of Hargrave leaving at 76.8%. The full explanation will appear here as soon as the language model finishes drafting it.
0.0%
Estimated probability of churn
By the numbers / Section II

A short profile of Hargrave.

Age
42
Female, in France
Tenure
2 yr
newer relationship
Balance
$0
no funds on deposit
Products
1
active member
How the models see this customer / Section III

Eight classifiers, two committees.

Each model gets the same inputs but reaches its own probability. The spread tells you how confident the consensus really is.

Committee A
Four classical learners
XGBoost
73.2%
Random Forest
56.4%
K-Nearest Neighbor
40.0%
Support Vector Machine
61.0%

XGBoost typically anchors the high end of this committee; the simpler classifiers pull the average back toward the centre.

Committee B
Four XGBoost variants
XGBoost with Feature Engineering
74.8%
XGBoost with SMOTE
81.2%
Best XGB
79.0%
Stacking
72.2%

Feature engineering and class-rebalancing tend to sharpen these estimates, for better or for worse on any given customer.

The what-if desk / Section IV

What if Hargrave were different?

Move any slider, flip any switch. The probability and the attribution chart update live. Use it to ask, “what would it take to bring this customer back into the green?”

Geography
Gender
42yr
2yr
619
1
$0
$101,349
synced
Probability of churn
= baseline
0.0%
0.0%

Why the model says so

Top contributors
computing attribution...
The pitch / Section V

The letter the model would write.

Pressing “Draft retention email” sends the prediction and a short explanation to a small language model and asks for a letter to keep this customer.

Generated by Llama 4 Scout via Groq. Treat as a draft.

FromRetention deskReHargrave, renewal of relationship
No draft yet. The page is intentionally quiet until you ask for one. Sending the prompt to the model takes a moment and costs a small amount of tokens.